The need to change calendars is as good a time as any to pull out the crystal ball and Brad Bishop has taken on the job of trying to find five horses who are not yet Group 1 winners but boast a ratings profile that suggests they have a strong chance to be in 12 months’ time.
A number of obvious contenders have been overlooked with the purpose of the exercise to concentrate on those who have had limited exposure to Group 1 racing.
Vilana (Timeform peak 119): A last-start 14th placing in the Group 3 Gold Rush (1400m) doesn’t exactly scream Group 1 winner-in-waiting, but that was the culmination of a forgettable trip to Perth for the James Cummings-trained four-year-old. The start prior he posted a Timeform rating of 119 to win The Hunter (1300m), a number that would be good enough to win a number of the sprint/mile Group 1 races he looks set to be directed towards in 2023. He also went 115 to win the Silver Eagle (1300m) earlier in spring and, being a son of gun wet-track sire Hallowed Crown, holds a pedigree edge if Sydney cops another customary wet autumn.
Prime Group 1 targets: Canterbury Stakes (1300m), All Aged Stakes (1400m), Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m), Stradbroke Handicap (1400m).
Francesco Guardi (118): It wouldn’t surprise if, at some point between the Moonee Valley Cup and Melbourne Cup, Chris Waller regretted not paying up for the Flemington two-miler with Francesco Guardi, but his reward might come on the first Tuesday in November 2023. The son of Frankel probably would have started second favourite in the Melbourne Cup after posting the equal-best Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup-winning Timeform figure (118) since Americain (124) in 2011. But Waller was determined not to overtax the gelding with a view to a full-on assault on next spring. Francesco Guardi is one of three lightly-raced imports now trained in Australia who occupy prominent places in Melbourne Cup betting on account of impressive wins during last spring and he holds a ratings edge over Soulcombe (115+) and White Marlin (112) and has had the benefit of an extra 12 months’ acclimatisation time.
Prime Group 1 targets: Anything 2400m-plus, but his year is likely to be planned around the Melbourne Cup (3200m).
Aft Cabin (116): James Cummings won last spring’s Caulfield Guineas (1600m), but it is easy to mount a case to say that he did so knowing he had a better one at home. Golden Mile rated 114 to win the Group 1 Guineas, which was two pounds inferior to what Astern colt Aft Cabin went to win the Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) three weeks’ earlier. The only male three-year-olds to post a better figure this season are Giga Kick (124), Jacquinot (120) and Best Of Bordeaux (119). Giga Kick and Best Of Bordeaux are sprinters , while Victorian colt Jacquinot is on an Australian Guineas path, meaning Aft Cabin looks a deserved clear favourite for the Group 1 Randwick Guineas.
Prime Group 1 targets: Randwick Guineas (1600m), Doncaster Mile (1600m).
Nugget (116): Was denied his shot at a big pay day when he missed a run in the $2 million Group 2 The Ingham, but demonstrated in two runs since why many are predicting big things for the imported son of Siyouni. After going 116 to win his ‘consolation’ on the day of The Ingham – Kirwan’s Lane ran 114 to win the main event – Nugget repeated that mark when a soft winner of the Group 3 Lord Stakes (1700m) at Sandown on Boxing Day. Ciaron Maher and David Eustace used the Boxing Day meeting as a launching pad to Group 1 glory for Marabi 12 months’ earlier and they have similar lofty aspirations for Nugget, who presently boasts a profile that looks suited to any 1600m Group 1 handicap but also appears to have the scope to one day end up a weight-for-age performer.
Prime Group 1 targets: Potentially Doncaster Mile, but definitely Epsom Handicap (1600m) or Toorak Handicap (1600m). Doomben Cup (2000m) if they want to go down a WFA path next prep.
Uncommon James (112): If not for a woefully-timed setback, there’s every chance Uncommon James wouldn’t be eligible for this list but for now he remains one of the most exciting non-Group 1 winners in the country. A winner of five of his six starts, with the only defeat a narrow one on debut, the son of Cable Bay went 112 to win the Group 3 Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) in brilliant style, a win that saw him shoot to Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) favouritism before the discovery of some minor filling in his near front leg brought down the curtain on his spring campaign. The timing of that injury, rather than the severity, was the biggest issue and with a rating still low enough to get him into handicaps closer to the limit weight than the top, trainers Steve O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted look to have plenty of options in 2023.
Prime Group 1 targets: Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and/or Newmarket Handicap (1200m) in autumn, Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) in winter, Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in spring.