David Payne isn’t going to Randwick expecting his Silver Shadow Stakes roughie Trafalgar Square to upstage Group One winner Manaal, but he does believe his filly can perform much better than her long odds suggest.
At $71, Trafalgar Square is one of the outsiders in Saturday’s field, while ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes victor Manaal continues to hold sway as a solid $2.70 favourite.
A Canterbury winner over 1250m in April and midfield in the Clarendon Stakes (1400m) at Hawkesbury in May, Trafalgar Square will appreciate further than the 1200m of this weekend’s assignment.
However, she does have the advantage of a recent run over eight of her 12 rivals and Payne is hoping that works in her favour.
“She’s a nice filly. She does want further, but I think she will still run well on Saturday,” Payne said.
“She’s got a run under her belt and a lot of the others are first-up.
“She has always shown me above-average ability. I don’t think she is as good as the topweight (Manaal), but if she can run into the first three, that would be great.”
Trafalgar Square resumed with a solid fourth against older horses in a Midway Handicap (1100m) at Randwick two weeks ago and Payne said she had continued to please him since.
He also pointed out she was on an inferior section of the track that day and felt she might otherwise have figured more prominently.
“It was a good run, she came down the bias track, the inside was off that day,” Payne said.
“She wouldn’t have won, but she would have most probably finished second or third if she could have come out and off the inside.
“She is racing her own age on Saturday and if she can run a place, she is valuable.”
Manaal does have recent history against her carrying 58kg under the set weights plus penalties conditions and conceding three kilos to all but one of her rivals.
Only one filly in the past 25 years, Samantha Miss in 2008, has carted the same impost to a Silver Shadow Stakes victory.