The right form reference – tick; beating the handicapper – tick; heavy track – tick.
The stars are aligning ahead of Stockman’s Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) tilt at Randwick and trainer Joe Pride isn’t the only one growing in confidence that he has the right horse, in the right race at the right time.
Punters are also rallying behind the seasoned stayer, who has been backed from $6 to be an outright $4.80 favourite for Saturday’s two-mile feature.
Coming off a last-start, weight-for-age second to budding star Duais in the Tancred Stakes, Stockman has snuck under the guard of handicappers with an eight-kilo weight drop, the lightest impost he has carried in his 29 starts.
“It is proven all the time, weight-for-age form back to handicap races where you get significant weight drops, it always seems to work,” Pride said.
“He beats the handicapper too. I think he should be on about 54-1/2 (kilos) because since the weights have come out, he’s won that Group Three (Sky High Stakes) and placed in a weight-for-age race.
“His rating has gone up at least seven points since he got his handicap.”
While weights can be critical, the most important factor for Stockman is the track rating.
The gelding has competed on heavy ground seven times for four wins and two seconds, while his record on firm surfaces is less appealing.
Pride is the first to admit Stockman is a one-trick pony in that regard, but fortunately the horse is almost certain to strike his favoured conditions.
“He’s had twelve goes on dry tracks and won a Goulburn maiden,” Pride said.
“He is purely a wet tracker but that’s what we’re going to need to see on Saturday.”
Pride will also saddle up Kaapfever and while he is regarded as an outsider, he is one of the few runners proven at the Sydney Cup journey.
“He flashed home and ran second in the Stayer’s Cup at Rosehill last year and was very unlucky, so he has ticked the 3200-metre box and a lot of these horses haven’t,” Pride said.