The nation’s focus will be on Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday for 2021 Melbourne Cup Day.
The pandemic means that limited fans will be allowed to celebrate trackside, while the feature race has not attracted as large an international contingent as usual, but the first Tuesday of November has lost absolutely none of its unique grandeur, and there are still ten winners to be found!
As always, I’ve run the rule over every galloper and race, and you can find my complete 2021 Melbourne Cup Day Tips below.
Preview brought to you by Neds. Learn more about Neds HERE.
Race 1: 10:45am – Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate, (1000m)
Tip: No. 3 Renosu
It is an outstanding way to begin 2021 Melbourne Cup Day, and the new crop of juveniles will step out in the Maribyrnong Plate.
I typically wouldn’t be too keen to play early in the two-year-olds season, but a couple of these have exposed form and looked good on debut, including Renosu.
Renosu settled at the tail of the field in the Debutant Stakes at Caulfield in October, came wide at the bend and let down with an eye-catching turn of foot to fill the minors.
I’m confident he’ll enjoy plenty of improvement for that experience and he can break his maiden on Tuesday.
Race 2: 11:20pm – The Macca’s Run, (2800m)
Tip: No. 10 Accountability
Is this the staying contest that really matters on Melbourne Cup Day?
No. It isn’t. but it is typically always a competitive race, and there looks to be real value in The Macca’s Run betting this year.
The one that I have landed on is Accountability.
Accountability needed his first few runs back this time to tune up and find his best, but he returned to winning form via a nice effort at Randwick-Kensington in September, and he franked it with another easy win over a mile and a half.
He takes his place in this race following a credible third, beaten only a length by Wil John at Caulfield, and I am confident that the rise in trip will see him turning the tables on that horse.
Race 3: 12:00pm – Subzero Handicap, (1400m)
Tip: No. No. 4 Excelman
The greys race has moved from his traditional home on Oaks Day this year and as always, it looks to be a bit of a dartboard!
That being said, I have always been a fan of Excelman, and I think that he can make a winning return to the races at a lovely price ($7.50 at publish).
Excelman did mix his form a little last time in, but his best performances were strong, and included a dominant win in BM84 company at Caulfield most notably.
He has won at this point of his preparation previously, and we can have an each-way play at the price.
Race 4: 12:40pm – Listed Furphy Plate, (1800m)
Tip: No. 6 Skyman
The Listed 1800m race is almost always one of the better races on Melbourne Cup Day and there is case to be built for nearly each of the nine confirmed starters this year, including Skyman.
Skyman hasn’t won in five starts since he resumed in August, but he also hasn’t raced poorly, and he has found form around plenty of above-average gallopers.
His second placing behind Melbourne Cup contestant Floating Artist reads well for this, as does his last-start second over the Cox Plate route at The Valley.
He’s rock-hard fit, Flemington suits and I think he’ll prove very difficult to beat.
Race 5: 1:20pm – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy (1400m) – 1:20pm AEDT, (1600m)
Tip: No. 2 Regardsmaree & No. 3 Fender
An outstanding race with plenty of key chances, and I am going to have something on a couple at a price; Regardsmaree and Fender.
Overall, Regardsmaree hasn’t shown his best form this time in, but we know how good he can be when he puts it all together, and it is fair to say that there has been plenty to like about his last couple of efforts.
Fender has been a strong and largely consistent performer for the Brett Cavanough yard throughout his career, and he has been typically competitive in Saturday quality races this prep.
At publish, these gallopers are up at odds of $12 & $13 respectively, and I’m going to back both each-way.
Race 6: 1:55pm – The Schweppervescence Plate, (1000m)
Tip: No. 1 Profiteer
This is the lowest bar that has been set for Profiteer in some time, and I can’t find a reason why he won’t be in the finish.
The Capitalist colt stamped himself as a runner to follow when debuting in autumn for consecutive wins, highlighted by an utterly bullish performance in the Inglis Millennium.
He finished midfield in the Group 1 Moir Stakes when resuming this time and takes his place in the Schweppervescence Plate following a credible second behind Extreme Warrior in the Blue Sapphire.
Fitter third-up, he is my best bet of the day.
Race 7: 3:05pm – Group 1 Melbourne Cup , (3200m)
Tip: No. 2 Incentivise
The 2021 Melbourne Cup field and barrier draw have been released, and a capacity field of local and intentional stayers will contest Australia’s headline thoroughbred race.
I think that Incentivise will take a power of beating, but be sure to check out my full race preview and complete 2021 Melbourne Cup Tips.
Race 8: 4:00pm – Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes, (1400m)
Tip: No. 1 Promise Of Success
She’s short enough, but Promise Of Success takes winning form into the Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes and looms as the runner to beat again.
The Dansili mare proved too strong for a BM72 field at Randwick-Kensington when resuming, and she kept all of her best work for late when second in a similar race second-up.
She returned to winning form with arguably the best performance of her career on The Everest Day, and a repeat of that performance would simply see her winning again.
Race 9: 4:40pm – Listed TAB Trophy, (1800m)
Tip: No. 6 Spirit Of Gaylard
Spirit Of Gaylard missed a start in Saturday’s Victoria Derby as the race’s fourth emergency, and he will take a power of beating in something like this.
The Puissance De Line colt has made just three appearances at the races so far, and he resumed this time to break his maiden impressively at Bendigo.
He takes his place in this race following a nice performance for fifth in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase, in which he kept all of his best work for late and really attacked the line.
Race 10: 5:10pm – Listed MSS Security Sprint, (1200m)
Tip: No. 8 Rubisaki
This is an outstanding race to end Melbourne Cup Day from a betting perspective in terms of the depth in class, but a tough one from a betting perspective – I can make a case for about half of them!
That being said, I think it’s a great opportunity to try and unearth some value, and I think that it lies with a horse like Rubisaki at around the $10 mark.
Rubisaki has been a great horse for the Patty Payne yard throughout her career, and she has picked off plenty of strong feature races.
She needed her first run back this time when seventh, beaten four lengths in the Alinghi Stakes, but she is a galloper who typically enjoys wholesale improvement with one under her belt.
